A reasonable probability, well presented.
But, as in comedy, it’s all in the timing.
I expect a significant recession, not depression, that will last two to five years, that means over three years, long enough to feel very depressing as if it will never end, but it will, SLOWLY recover, slow enough it will hardly feel like a recovery for one to two more years.
The recovery will NOT be marked by “exuberant excess”, therefore it will be better founded on a more realistic base.